The Japanese Grand Prix this weekend looks slightly different than some would have expected at the start of the season, not least of Liam Lawson.
After only two races in the Red Bull cockpit, the Kiwi driver has been demoted to the junior Racing Bulls team. Granted, the two races that Lawson ran so far in 2025 were shambolic in terms of performance. Still, there will be those who feel that he was hard done by. After all, if he doesn’t one day return to that seat, he would’ve had the shortest Red Bull career of any driver who has ever raced for this team. It was a brutal decision exactly because of his limited time behind the wheel. But then it was also not. First, Red Bull has far more access to data and telemetry than we could ever dream of. So, they would know exactly where, why, and how Lawson was struggling. Whatever they saw in that data was enough to give him the boot.
Perhaps there were also other factors at play. Lawson has never come across as well as, say, Alex Albon does. Amid his aggressive moves against Checo Perez in 2024, when he was gunning for the Mexican’s seat, he categorically stated that a driver who says that a car is difficult to drive should simply adapt and not make excuses. Given his subsequent performances or lack thereof, this hasn’t aged too well. It’s a hefty crash down to each for Lawson, but he’ll undoubtedly be determined to silence the critics as he gets behind the wheel of the Racing Bull.
In his place Japanese driver Yuki Tsunoda. There is, rightly, much fear that he too will fail in the second Red Bull seat. But he had handled Red Bull overlooking him for Lawson with great class and now that he can step into that very same seat, he may well surprise a few people. There’s nothing to suggest that he’s going to beat Max Verstappen, that is probably a bridge too far. But he’s developed a bit of steeliness over the last few seasons that might well stand him in good stead this weekend.
And where better to show your mettle than the gloriously challenging Suzuka circuit? It’s an old-school masterpiece that demands the utmost of driver and machine. The
combination of high-speed esses and blindingly fast Degner curves are just some of the highlights of a circuit steeped in as much peril as it is in glory. Devoid of massive runoff areas the Suzuka circuit is a practice in precision that punishes even the smallest of mistakes. It’s a masterpiece begging to be mastered by the greats.
It’s also a place where Max Verstappen has performed brilliantly in the past. And though he may not have the car at his disposal to dominate proceedings, it’s best not to count him completely out of the equation. It’s a given that McLaren arrives on the track as one of the favourites, but not so straightforward a prediction as to which of Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri will have the edge. It’s the perfect bit of distraction for others to take advantage of if they are anywhere near the Papaya McLaren on Sunday.
The brilliance of Formula 1 in 2025 is that we go into nearly every race weekend completely in the dark as to who will step up to the top step of the podium Sure, some are expected to feature at the sharp-end but it certainly isn’t guaranteed that it’ll be straightforward.
